Regime · Live
Macro Regime
Growth × Inflation 4-quadrant placement + tactical allocation matrix.
1 · Current position
Plots the current month on (growth momentum, inflation momentum) axes. Borrowed from Bridgewater All Weather (Dalio 1996); not original framework.
美 5 月 FOMC 维持利率, 市场定价年内 1-2 次降息.
国内政策托底但弱复苏. 通胀粘性主要来自能源 + 服务.
2 · Tactical allocation matrix
Tactical tilts across 5 asset classes (OW = overweight, N = neutral, UW = underweight) conditional on regime. Same template as BlackRock BII quarterly outlook.
| Asset class | 6-month view | 12-month view | 24-month view | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN Equity | N | OW | OW | 估值低位 + 政策预期 |
| US Equity | UW | N | N | 估值高位, 等待 EPS 修正 |
| Duration | OW | OW | N | 降息周期开启 |
| Credit | N | N | UW | 利差已收敛 |
| Commodities | OW | OW | OW | 去美元化 + 地缘 |
OW = overweight · N = neutral · UW = underweight
3 · Historical regime trajectory
One point per month; 12 monthly points on the same quadrant chart trace the regime path. v1 has only the current point; needs ≥6 months of points to be informative.
Framework borrowed from: Bridgewater All Weather (1996) + Hedgeye GIP + BlackRock BII Tactical Matrix.